2014 Conference Papers
NZAE 2014 Conference Programme and Papers
| Abbreviations: (NZEPP): New Zealand Economic Policy Prize Entry (SNZ): Statistics New Zealand Prize Entry (JW-D): Jan Whitwell Prize Entry (Doctoral) (JW-BM): Jan Whitwell Prize Entry (Bachelors or Masters) | |||
| Session Title | Paper Title | Presenter | Co-Authors |
| WEDNESDAY 2 JULY | |||
| KEYNOTE 1: John Creedy, Victoria University of Wellington ‘Measuring inequality: in pursuit of a chimera?‘ Time: 9.00 – 10.30am. Chair: John Yeabsley | |||
| 10.30 – 11.00 MORNING TEA | |||
| (1.1) Urban Economics 1 Session Organised by Auckland Council Wednesday 11.00 – 12.30pmChair: Geoff Cooper
| Introduction to the session: The Economic Consequences of Planning Choices in New Zealands Biggest City | Geoff Cooper | |
| The economic impacts of minimum parking requirements in Auckland | Stuart Donovan (NZEPP) | Stuart Crosswell, Geoff Cooper, Joshua Arbury, Timothy Hazledine | |
| Up or out? Residential building heights in Auckland | Melanie Luen | ||
| (1.2) Trade Policy Wednesday 11.00 – 12.30pmChair: Bill Rosenburg
| Can India connect with Asian International Production Networks through RTAs? | Rahul Sen | Badri Narayanan Gopalakrishnan, Sadhana Srivastava |
| Global and National impacts of free trade agreements on the New Zealand Economy | Erwin Corong | ||
| The impacts of preferential trading agreements on China and India’s trade | Sadhana Srivastava | Don Webber, Rahul Sen | |
| (1.3) Climate Change and the ETS Wednesday 11.00 – 12.30pmChair: Adam Daigneault | Understanding the relationship between Household Characterists and GHG Emissions from Consumption | Suzi Kerr | Corey Allan |
| Climate and aggregate income: is there a long-term equilibrium? | Eng Joo Tan (JW-D) | ||
| Land use change between forestry and agriculture under the New Zealand Emissions Trading Scheme | Yue Wang (JW-D) | Stephen Poletti, Golbon Zakeri, Joon Hwan (John) Kim, Basil Sharp | |
| (1.4) Crime Wednesday 11.00 – 12.30pmChair: Sean Kimpton
| Safety in the New Zealand sex industry | Laura Meriluoto | |
| The impact of sentencing on future employment, benefit and re-offending | Sarah Crichton | ||
| Productivity Gains from Workplace Protections of Domestic Violence Victims | Suzanne Snively(SNZ) (NZEPP) | ||
| (1.5) Data and Measurement Wednesday 11.00 – 12.30pmChair: Andrew Coleman
| Using Intersectoral Financial Balances to aid Forecasting and Policymaking | Keith Rankin | |
| Maximising the Use of Administrative Data in Sub-Annual Business Collections | Nicolas Cox | Mathew Page | |
| Organisational efficiency and effectiveness for public sector organisations | Evangeline Singh | ||
| 12.30 – 1.30 LUNCH | |||
| (2.1) Urban Economics 2 Session Organised by Auckland Council Wednesday 1.30 – 3.00pmChair: Rachael Logie
| Location affordability in New Zealand cities: An intra-urban and comparative perspective | Peter Nunns | Stuart Donovan, Geoff Cooper, Alex Raichev |
| Residential Satisfaction, Crowding and Density: Evidence over Different Geographic Scales in Auckland. | Eilya Torshizian (JW-D) (SNZ) | Arthur Grimes | |
| Big city life? Challenges and trade-offs for Auckland city | Kirdan Lees | ||
| (2.2) Heterodoxy Wednesday 1.30 – 3.00pmChair: Keith Rankin
| A Marxian Theory of Credit-Money | Pablo Ahumada(JW-D) | |
| Heterodoxy and Orthodoxy: Frank Knight and the Austrians on the Method and Content of Economics | Geoffrey Brooke | ||
| The Austrian Entrepreneur: Resurrecting the Menger-Schumpeter Tradition | Sean Kimpton | ||
| (2.3) Monetary Policy Wednesday 1.30 – 3.00pmChair: Saten Kumar
| A structural forecasting model for New Zealand: NZSIM | Nick Sander | |
| What Drives the New Zealand Yield Curve? Domestic vs. International Factors | Enzo Cassino | Tugrul Vehbi | |
| (2.4) Education Wednesday 1.30 – 3.00pmChair: Zaneta Park
| A Longitudinal Analysis on the Incidence of Over-education among Immigrants and its Impacts on Earnings | Sholeh Maani (SNZ) | Le Wen |
| Financial Development and Human Capital Accumulation? What is the link? | Rashmi Arora | ||
| Using Predictive Modelling to Identify Students at Risk of Poor University Outcomes | Tim Maloney | Pengfei Jia | |
| (2.5) Environmental Economics Wednesday 1.30 – 3.00pmChair: Paul Dalziel
| Trading in a Linked ETS: An Examination of New Zealand’s System Using Aggregate Data | Judd Ormsby | Suzi Kerr |
| Agro-environmental policy impacts on regional land use in New Zealand | Adam Daigneault (NZEPP) | Suzie Greenhalgh | |
| Taxes versus tradable pollution permits: evaluating environmental policies that affect multiple pollutions | Andrew Coleman (NZEPP) | Boon-ling Yeo | |
| 3.00 – 4.00pm | AFTERNOON TEA AND EXTENDED POSTER SESSION | ||
| Extended Poster Session 3.00-4.00pm | |||
| Cluster analysis for longitudinal ordinal data: a bayesian approach to estimate finite mixtures with complex random-effects | Roy Costilla | Ivy Liu, Richard Arnold | |
| Income mobility in new zealand: a descriptive analysis | Kristie Carter | Penny Mok, Trinh Le | |
| Interest Rates and City Growth | Andrew Coleman | ||
| Competitive balance measurement in sports leagues: Why the ‘tried and true’ measure is not fit for purpose | Dorian Owen | ||
| Charting Household Labour Force Statistical needs and priorities | Daniel Griffiths | ||
| (3.1) Land and House Values Wednesday 4.00 – 5.30pmChair: Kirdan Lees
| The effect if LVR restrictions on the housing market: A counterfactual analysis | Gael Price (NZEPP) | |
| Examining the Drivers of Rural Land Values in New Zealand | Corey Allan | Suzi Kerr | |
| Homeownership and Labour Market Flexibility: New Spatial-Econometric Evidence for New Zealand | William Cochrane | Jacques Poot | |
| (3.2) Econometrics and Data Wednesday 4.00-5.30pmChair: Adam Jaffe | A Monte Carlo Analysis of the Performance of Alternative Meta-Analysis Estimators | Bob Reed | Jacques Poot |
| Price indexes from online data using the fixed effects window splice (FEWS) method | Frances Krsinich | ||
| Modeling Calendar effects in MBIE’s Jobs Online vacancies time series | Amapola Generosa | Anne Fale | |
| (3.3) A Macroeconomic smorgasbord Wednesday 4.00-5.30pmChair: James Graham | Do remittances facilitate a sustainable current account? | Mark Holmes | Ggazi Hassan |
| How much have lending standards constrained U.S. recovery? | Martin Fukac | ||
| Political Risk and Volatility Spillover in Stock Returns in Emerging Markets | Tahir Suleman (JW-D) | ||
| (3.4) A Microeconomic smorgasbord Wednesday 4.00-5.30pmChair: Anita King | Inter-regional Spillover Effects in New Zealand International Tourism Demand | Joshua Curry (JW-BM) (SNZ) | |
| Antitrust Market Definition and Sensitivity of the Diversion Ratio | Lydia Cheung | ||
| Do all-weather tracks help athletes train? | Seamus Hogan | Richard Watt | |
| (3.5) Wellbeing Wednesday 4.00-5.30pmChair: Suzanne Snively | A New Cross-Country Measure of Material Wellbeing | Sean Hyland | |
| 25 Years of Counting for Nothing: Waring’s Critique of National Accounts | Caroline Saunders | Paul Dalziel | |
| Wellbeing Economics: A Policy Framework for New Zealand | Paul Dalziel | Caroline Saunders | |
| 5.30 – 6.30 WELCOME RECEPTION, Foyer of SPR Building | |||
| THURSDAY 3 JULY | |||
| KEYNOTE 2: Diane Coyle, Elightenment Economics What do we mean when we talk about ‘the economy’ Time: 9.00 – 10.30am. Chair: Mary Hedges | |||
| 10.30 – 11.00 MORNING TEA | |||
| (4.1) Housing Market Thursday 11.00-12.30pmChair: David Hawkey
| Infrastructure’s Long-Lived Impact on Urban Development: Theory and Empirics | Arthur Grimes (SNZ) | Eyal Apatov, Larissa Lutchman, Anna Robinson |
| Have housing problems increased in greater Christchurch after the quakes?: Trends in housing from the Census of population and dwellings 1991-2013 | Rosemary Goodyear | Sonia Polak | |
| (4.2) Experimental and External Validation Thursday 11.00-12.30pmChair: Geoffrey Brooke
| Can you spare some change for charity? Experimental evidence on verbal cues and loose change effects in a Dictator Game | Stephen Knowles | David Fielding |
| Cognitive Biases, Mental Illness and Economic Decision-making: A Neuroeconomic investigation into Anhedonia. | Phillip Hall | ||
| Reciprocity at the Workplace: Do Fair Wages Lead to Higher Effort, Productivity, and Profitability? | Paul Chen | ||
| (4.3) International Thursday 11.00-12.30pmChair: Mark Holmes
| Determinants of Capital Inflows: New Empirical evidence | Muhammad Akhtaruzzaman(SNZ) | |
| The evolution of the U.S. inflation output tradeoff | Benjamin Wong | ||
| Are New Zealand and Australia natural trading partners? | Dayal Talukder | ||
| (4.4) Labour Thursday 11.00 – 12.30pmChair: Daniel Griffiths | Labour force projections to 2024 by age, gender and highest qualification, with a time-varying cohort method | Julian Williams | Ram SriRamaratnam, Xintao Zhao |
| Labour market insight from the 2013 census: Implications for modelling Labour market outcomes in occupational (skills) forecasting. | Ram SriRamaratnam | Xintao Zhao, Julian Williams | |
| Labour’s share of New Zealand’s productivity and income gains | Lisa Meehan | Dean Parham | |
| (4.5) Tax Policy and Inequality Thursday 11.00 – 12.30pmChair: Tim Maloney | Working for families changes: The effect on labour supply in New Zealand | Penny Mok (SNZ) (NZEPP) | |
| Comparing inequality and mobility in economic dynamics | Baochun Peng | ||
| Tax reforms and intertemporal shifting of wage-income: Evidence from Danish Monthly payroll records | Peer Skov (JW-D) | ||
| 12.30 -1.15 LUNCH1.15 – 2.00 NZAE AGM | |||
| (5.1) Linked Data Sets – Session Organised by GEN Thursday 2.00-3.30pmChair: Michele Lloyd
| Statistics Nz’s Integrated Data and Infrastructure and Microdata Acess Facility | Natalie Keyes | |
| Earnings and employment in foreign-owned firms | Lynda Sanderson (SNZ) | David C Mare, Richard Fabling | |
| Employment outcomes of tertiary education: the contribution of the IDI | Zaneta Park | Roger Smyth | |
| (5.2) Econometric and Economic Theory Thursday 2.00 – 3.30pmChair: Dorian Owen | Measuring the effect of Payment Innovations | Martin Fukac | |
| An analysis of dynamic pari-mutuel gambling markets | Jed Armstrong | ||
| The practice of lagging variables to avoid simultaneity | Bob Reed | ||
| (5.3) Exchange Rates Thursday 2.00-3.30pmChair: John McDermott
| Productivity and real exchange rate movements for the ASEAN and SAARC countries: revisiting the Balassa-Samuelson Hypothesis | Maryam Ishaq (JW-D) | |
| The J-Curve disparity in the goods and services sector in the Pacific region: Evidence from devaluation in Fiji | Kushneel Prakash(JW-BM) | ||
| Real exchange rate and internation competitiveness – Concepts, measures and trends in New Zealand | Dhritidyuti Bose | ||
| (5.4) Distribution Thursday 2.00-3.30pmChair: David Law | The gender pay gap in post-soviet russia: A distributional approach | Anna Robinson(JW-BM) | Steve Stillman |
| Prospective maternity risk and the gender pay gap | Eric Crampton | Hayden Skilling | |
| The distributional effects of the Australian Cash Bonus Payments Response to the global financial crisis | Dean Hyslop | ||
| (5.5) Health Thursday 2.00-3.30pmChair: Seamus Hogan
| Mental distress and temporary employment: Empirical evidence from the UK | Gail Pacheco | Chris Dawson, Michail Veliziotis, Don J Webber |
| Poverty and individual deprivation as predictors of self-rated health over time | Kristie Carter (SNZ) | Fiona Imlach Gunasekara, Peter Crampton, Tony Blakely | |
| Health sector Labour market dynamics and multi-employer collective agreements | James Hogan (JW-BM) | ||
| 3.30 – 4.00 AFTERNOON TEA | |||
KEYNOTE 3: David Card, University of California, Berkeley “Is Who You Work for Just as Important as what You Know? The Role of Firms in labour market Outcomes” Time: 4.00 – 5.30pm. Chair: Dean Hyslop | |||
| 7.00 – CONFERENCE DINNER – Floating Pavilion | |||
| FRIDAY 4 JULY | |||
| KEYNOTE 4: David Giles (AWH Philips Memorial Lecture) “The Econometrics of Temporal Aggregation: 1956-2014” Time: 9.00 – 10.30am. Chair: Arthur Grimes | |||
| 10.30 – 11.00 MORNING TEA | |||
| (6.1) Microsimulation Session Organised by NZIER Friday 11.00-12.30pmChair: Penny Mok
| Microsimulation at Treasury | Anita King | |
| Modelling the early life-course: A decision-support tool for policy makers | Barry Milne | Roy Lay-Yee, Jessica thomas, Peter Davis | |
| Modelling Birth Outcomes in New Zealand | Bill Kaye-Blake | Chris Schilling, Martin Spielauer | |
| (6.2) Pot Luck Friday 11.00-12.30pmChair: Jacques Poot
| How do firms form their expectations? New survey evidence | Saten Kumar | Olivier Coibion, Yuriy Gorodnichenko |
| Previous exposure to natural disasters and perceptions of vulnerability: Survey evidence from Fiji | Pike Brown | ||
| Strategic interaction, trade and integration among small island economics: The case of PICTA | Dibyendu Maiti (SNZ) (NZEPP) | Rahul Sen | |
| (6.3) Business Cycles Friday 11.00-12.30pmChair: Donal Curtin | Sector and industry business cycles in New Zealand: Do they exist and how do they relate to the national business cycle? | Michael Alspach | |
| N Sync: similarities and leader-follower relationships in international business cycles | James Graham | ||
| On trend robustness and end-point issues for New Zealand business cycle facts | Viv Hall | ||
| (6.4) Outcomes for Youth Friday 11.00-12.30pmChair: Gail Pacheco | Monkey see, monkey do? How do shifts in parental socio-economic class influence children’s outcomes? | Mary Hedges | Gail Pacheco, Jaimee Stuart, and Susan Morton |
| Economic Outcomes of Youth not in Education, Employment or Training (NEET) | Anton Samoilenko (SNZ) (NZEPP) | Kristie Carter | |
| Armed Conflict and Child Health: Evidence from Nepal’s Maoist People’s War | Apsara Karki Nepal | ||
| (6.5) Saving and Productivity Friday 11.00-12.30pmChair: Dave Heatley
| The effect of public pensions on household saving: evidence from a New Zealand natural experiment | Talosaga Talosaga (SNZ) (NZEPP) | Mark Vink |
| The Effect of Information Technology on Labour Productivity Growth in New Zealand | Dorian Owen | Nathan Spence | |
| KiwiSaver and the Accumulation of Net Wealth | David Law (SNZ) (NZEPP) | Grant Scobie | |
| 12.30 – 1.30 LUNCH | |||
| 1.30 Conference Close | |||
